27 comments
70 forecasters
Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?
1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Sep 29, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2025
Resolved:Jan 21, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 1, 2021
Will Emerson Mnangagwa be president of Zimbabwe on January 1st, 2029?
20% chance
6
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan remain President of Turkey until the next Turkish presidential election?
90% chance
24
Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?
35.1% chance
35