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35 comments
291 forecasters

Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered before 2045?

28.4%chance
Forecast Timeline
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Authors:
AdamKosloff
Opened:Apr 21, 2018
Closes:Jan 1, 2045
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2045
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 22, 2018
Economy & Business
Natural Sciences
Technology
Space
Daily Mail logo
Is this why aliens haven't contacted us yet? Extraterrestrials are BORED of trying to find us - and have simply stopped looking, scientist claims
Daily Mail•Oct 16, 2025
Independent logo
Aliens may have stopped trying to contact humans because they simply got bored, Nasa scientist
Independent•Oct 15, 2025
Guardian logo
‘Bored aliens’: has intelligent life stopped bothering trying to contact Earth?
Guardian•Oct 15, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If life is discovered in the solar system before 2050, where will it be first discovered?

Europa
36%
Mars
35%
Enceladus
10%
7 others
109 forecasters

When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?

Jan 2053
(Aug 2036 - 2146)
Jan 2053
(Aug 2036 - 2146)
165 forecasters

Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?

22.4% chance
1.6k
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