Question

Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered before 2045?

35 comments35

Total Forecasters288

Community Prediction

27%

(12% - 43%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 27%

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

AdamKosloff

Opened:

Apr 21, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2045

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2045

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 22, 2018

To Find Aliens We Should Look For Planetary Alignments, Scientists Say

Forbes•Aug 24, 2025

Here’s Where We Should Look For Aliens, According To Astronomers

Forbes•Aug 23, 2025

NASA scientists make startling discovery about alien life in our very own solar system: ‘Big implications’

New York Post•Aug 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If life is discovered in the solar system before 2050, where will it be first discovered?

When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?

Jan 2053

Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?

22%

Authors:

AdamKosloff

Opened:

Apr 21, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2045

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2045

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 22, 2018

To Find Aliens We Should Look For Planetary Alignments, Scientists Say

Forbes•Aug 24, 2025

Here’s Where We Should Look For Aliens, According To Astronomers

Forbes•Aug 23, 2025

NASA scientists make startling discovery about alien life in our very own solar system: ‘Big implications’

New York Post•Aug 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If life is discovered in the solar system before 2050, where will it be first discovered?

When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?

Jan 2053

Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?

22%