24 comments
35 forecasters
How good will the best published polygenic score be for intelligence in 2026?
Current estimate
0.256
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Authors:
Opened:Oct 7, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 9, 2021
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?
17 Aug 2029
(02 Nov 2025 - Aug 2037)
17 Aug 2029
(02 Nov 2025 - Aug 2037)
118 forecasters
By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?
60% chance
248
When will some country do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?
Feb 2050
(Mar 2039 - Sep 2066)
Feb 2050
(Mar 2039 - Sep 2066)
41 forecasters