Question
How good will the best published polygenic score be for intelligence in 2026?
Total Forecasters35
Community Prediction
0.256
(0.193 - 0.329)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <0.1 | 5.8% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 0.1927 | — |
| median | 0.2561 | — |
| upper 75% | 0.3287 | — |
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Oct 7, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 9, 2021
Authors:
Opened:Oct 7, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 9, 2021