16 comments
44 forecasters
Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?
21%chance
8 pp this week
The community sees this as a toss-up.
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Authors:
Opened:Oct 4, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2060
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2125
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 6, 2021
If a global catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
10% chance
42
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
7% chance
159
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
23.9% chance
34