Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
Log in
Sign Up
16
46
forecasters
9
16 comments
46 forecasters
Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?
Predict
Follow
share
embed
21%
chance
Timeline
Histogram
1d
1w
2m
all
Comments (16)
Timeline
Key Factors (0)
Question Info
Similar Questions
No key factors yet
Add some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
0 comments
51 forecasters
Global Catastrophe Causing (Near) Extinction
9%
chance
2 comments
166 forecasters
Synth-bio GC to cause (near) extinction?
7%
chance
3 comments
37 forecasters
"Other risk" to cause (near) extinction
25%
chance
23 comments
423 forecasters
Global Population Decline >10% by 2100
39%
chance
4 comments
58 forecasters
>1,000 Detonations Cause Extinction
5%
chance
9 comments
84 forecasters
CTs AI Extinction Before 2100
3.5%
chance
13 comments
57 forecasters
Time of Recovery Following Global Catastrophe
Current estimate
1122 years
1 comment
35 forecasters
>1,000 Detonations Cause Population <400M
29%
chance