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76 forecasters

13

76 forecasters

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a nationalized organization?

15%chance

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3 comments95 forecasters

Government project develops first AGI

3 comments127 forecasters

Corporation develops first AGI

11 comments76 forecasters

Non-profit organization develops first AGI

3 comments95 forecasters

University group develops first AGI

5 comments78 forecasters

Who will develop the first AGI?

7 comments103 forecasters

Group To Develop First TAI

6 comments111 forecasters

US government control of any US AI company or project before 2029?

30 comments90 forecasters

AGI Manhattan/Apollo Project

Current estimate