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47 forecasters

5

47 forecasters

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

3%chance

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1 comment40 forecasters

Nuclear Weapon Test Over 30 MT by 2030

0 comments17 forecasters

Total yield of nuc. det. >50Mt by 2050

5 comments21 forecasters

Total Nuclear Yield >10,000 MT by 2029

2 comments20 forecasters

Total yield of nuc. det. >1000Mt by 2050

2 comments23 forecasters

Largest Yield of Nuclear Detonation by 2050

Current estimate

1 comment37 forecasters

Total Nuclear Weapons >20,000 by 2030

34 comments121 forecasters

Non-state actor develops a nuke by 2030

0 comments45 forecasters

Non-state actor acquires a nuke by 2030