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39 forecasters
Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?
3%chance
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Authors:
Opened:Oct 28, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 30, 2021
Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?
5% chance
46
Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?
21% chance
16
Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?
25% chance
21