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30 forecasters
If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?
50%chance
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Authors:
Opened:Oct 28, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 30, 2021
If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?
63% chance
41
If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?
99% chance
33
Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?
72% chance
27