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33 forecasters
If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?
99%chance
The community sees this as a toss-up.
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Authors:
Opened:Oct 28, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 30, 2021