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6
74
forecasters
4
6 comments
74 forecasters
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
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Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?
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80%
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13 comments
63 forecasters
New Nuclear-Armed State by 2030?
55%
chance
20 comments
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Nuclear States in 2030
9
50%
10
33%
11
5%
8
1%
3 others
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152 forecasters
Number of Nuclear Weapons Used by 2050
Current estimate
1.01 weapons
4 comments
67 forecasters
# Nuclear Weapons Used by 2050, if Any
Current estimate
7.04 weapons
13 comments
295 forecasters
Nuclear Power Renounces Nukes by 2035
1%
chance
69 comments
530 forecasters
At least 1 Nuclear Detonation in War by 2050
35%
chance
9 comments
126 forecasters
Who gets nukes by 2035?
Iran
21%
Saudi Arabia
15%
South Korea
10%
Poland
5%
6 others
1 comment
37 forecasters
Total Nuclear Weapons >20,000 by 2030
2.5%
chance