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55
539
forecasters
49
55 comments
539 forecasters
Metaculus
Will Metaculus exist in 2030?
Predict
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98%
chance
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Comments (55)
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36 comments
117 forecasters
Date of Last Metaculus Resolution
Current estimate
Mar 2047
10 comments
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Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?
2.4%
chance
17 comments
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Metaculus Predicts AI Risk Significant 2040
85%
chance
47 comments
130 forecasters
Normal world in 2030?
60%
chance
86 comments
166 forecasters
Total Number of Metaculus Predictions
12 comments
175 forecasters
AI system beat human pros in forecasting tournament by 2030?
98%
chance
14 comments
62 forecasters
AI resolving questions on Metaculus
2025
result:
No
2030
70%
2035
91%
2040
90%
2050
96%
16 comments
46 forecasters
Extinction If Population Under 400 Million
21%
chance