📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of current COVID hospitalizations before 1 March 2022?

Resolved :19.7k11.6k
4
4
Total Forecasters18
Community Prediction11.6k (9.86k - 14.3k)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>22k
...
...
...
...
9.857k
11.62k
14.27k
2.1%

What was the final result?19.7k

Community Baseline Score
-39.0
Community Peer Score
9.8
Authors:
juancambeiro
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Health & Pandemics
2021 Leaderboard
United Kingdom
Public health
Medicine
COVID-19
Virology
National Health Service (England)

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