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Trump Victory if Biden v. Trump 2024

Question

The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024. It will be the first presidential election after electoral votes are redistributed according to the post–2020 census reapportionment. Incumbent president Joe Biden has stated that he intends to run for re-election to a second term, although no official statements of candidacy have been filed as of November 3, 2021.

Former president Donald Trump has heavily hinted (see numerous comments on this question) that he plans to seek the presidency in 2024, but has likewise not filed an official statement of candidacy as of November 3, 2021.

As of early November 2021, President Biden's approval rating stands at approximately 43% according to FiveThirtyEight. This is the lowest level of approval yet seen in his presidency.

If the 2024 US Presidential Election is Trump vs. Biden, will Trump win?

This question asks whether, contingent on the 2024 US presidential election being a contest between Democratic nominee Joseph R. Biden and Republican nominee Donald J. Trump, will Donald J. Trump receive at least 270 votes in the electoral college, as certified by Congress in January 2025? If so, this question resolves positively. If the contest is Biden v Trump and Biden wins, this question resolves negatively. If the contest is not Biden v Trump, this question resolves ambiguously.

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