12 comments
48 forecasters
Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?
5%chance
2 pp this week
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Authors:
Opened:Nov 25, 2021
Closes:Jan 2, 2031
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2031
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 27, 2021
Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?
80% chance
59
Will any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development be signed by the US and China before the following years?
26 forecasters
When will a G-20 country field fully-autonomous, no human-in-the-loop lethal military AI weapon systems?
Apr 2031
(09 Mar 2029 - Jun 2036)
Apr 2031
(09 Mar 2029 - Jun 2036)
17 forecasters