Question

Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?

12 comments12

Total Forecasters47

Community Prediction

8.6%

(5% - 17%)

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50%

community: 8.6%

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Authors:

crule

Opened:

Nov 25, 2021

Closes:

Jan 2, 2031

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2031

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 27, 2021

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Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

80%

Will any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development be signed by the US and China before the following years?

When will a G-20 country field fully-autonomous, no human-in-the-loop lethal military AI weapon systems?

May 2031

Authors:

crule

Opened:

Nov 25, 2021

Closes:

Jan 2, 2031

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2031

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 27, 2021

Artificial Intelligence

B-2 Strikes on Iran Expose Limits of Elon Musk's 'Drone Swarms'

Newsweek•Jun 24, 2025

AI Willing to Kill Humans to Avoid Being Shut Down, Report Finds

Newsweek•Jun 22, 2025

OpenAI wins $200m defence contract for ‘warfighting’ AI

Independent•Jun 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

80%

Will any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development be signed by the US and China before the following years?

When will a G-20 country field fully-autonomous, no human-in-the-loop lethal military AI weapon systems?

May 2031