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    Xi Jinping Leader of China in 2030

    Created by PhilippSchoenegger on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}
    Published by PhilippSchoenegger {{"onDate" | translate:({date: (qctrl.question.publish_time | dateStr)})}}

    Question

    Xi Jinping is currently nearing the end of his second term as CCP General Secretary and is expected to make a bid for a third term and win it with a 92% chance according to a current Metaculus question. There is considerable speculation that Xi will pave the way for a much longer tenure akin to the tenure of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaping. Having China ruled by a single figure with a potentially unlimited tenure might have considerable ramifications for a variety of topics ranging from the West's China policy to global security concerns.

    Will Xi Jinping continue leading China in 2030?

    This question will resolve positive if either:

    • Xi is CCP General Secretary on 1 January, 2030.
    • Xi is paramount leader of China on 1 January, 2030.
    • Xi is de facto leader of China on 1 January, 2030.

    This question will resolve negative if:

    • Any other person is leader on 1 January, 2030.

    This question will resolve ambiguous if:

    • China ceases to exist as the political entity it is right now.
    Categories:
    Geopolitics
    Politics
    Impactful Forecasting Prize

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