Question
By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?
Resolved:NoTotal Forecasters354
Community Prediction
1%
(0.1% - 3%)
Make a Prediction
Did this actually happen?No
Community Peer Score
18.8
Authors:
Opened:Nov 22, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolves:Jan 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 22, 2021
Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?
66%
What will be CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2026?
Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?
5%
Authors:
Opened:Nov 22, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolves:Jan 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 22, 2021
Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?
66%
What will be CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2026?
Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?
5%