27 forecasters

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

4.8%chance

The community sees this as a toss-up.

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Authors:

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2034

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 20, 2021