1 comment
27 forecasters
Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?
4.8%chance
Forecast Timeline
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Nov 18, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2034
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2034
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 20, 2021
Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?
3% chance
18
Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?
45% chance
39
Will at least two of the United States, Russia or China mutually agree to decrease their nuclear stockpiles before 2026?
0.7% chance
57