Question

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

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Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2034

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 20, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Risk of nuclear war grows amid new arms race – DW – 06

•Jun 16, 2025

SIPRI report highlights growing nuclear threat as modernisation accelerates and arms control weakens

•Jun 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

45%

Will at least two of the United States, Russia or China mutually agree to decrease their nuclear stockpiles before 2026?

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2034

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 20, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Risk of nuclear war grows amid new arms race – DW – 06

•Jun 16, 2025

SIPRI report highlights growing nuclear threat as modernisation accelerates and arms control weakens

•Jun 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

45%