Question

What proportion of offensive nuclear detonations by 2030 will be of nonstrategic nuclear weapons, if there's at least one offensive detonation by then?

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Total Forecasters11

Community Prediction

0.835%

(0.0706% - 0.98%)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	0.07061%	0.8347%	0.9799%
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	0.07061%	—
median	0.8347%	—
upper 75%	0.9799%	—

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Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2029

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 20, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

Nov 2035

What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?

282

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2029

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 20, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

Nov 2035

What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?

282