16 forecasters

Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

21%chance

Forecast Timeline

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2049

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 20, 2021