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16 forecasters
Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?
21%chance
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
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Opened:Nov 18, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2049
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 20, 2021
Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?
8% chance
20
What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?
290 kt
(59.8 - 1113)
290 kt
(59.8 - 1113)
22 forecasters
if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?
46 forecasters