Question

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

0
Total Forecasters32
Community Prediction
75%
(67% - 80%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 75%
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
havlickova.blanka
Opened:Nov 18, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2029
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 20, 2021
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
Pakistan
France
North Korea and weapons of mass destruction
China
United Kingdom
India
United States
Israel
Nuclear weapons testing
Peaceful nuclear explosion