MetaculusM

Question

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

Total Forecasters29

Community Prediction67%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 67%

median 67.0%mean 63.4%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction