Question
At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?
Total Forecasters32
Community Prediction
75%
(67% - 80%)
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Authors:
Opened:Nov 18, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2029
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 20, 2021
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?
Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?
3%
Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?
25%
Authors:
Opened:Nov 18, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2029
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 20, 2021
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?
Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?
3%
Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?
25%