Question

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

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Total Forecasters19
Community Prediction
21.9%
(15% - 27%)

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50%
community: 21.9%
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Authors:
havlickova.blanka
Opened:Nov 18, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2049
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 20, 2021
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks