Question

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, will international trade of goods decline by at least 10% for at least 1 year in the following 5 years?

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Total Forecasters18

Community Prediction

97%

(93% - 99%)

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50%

community: 97%

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Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2049

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 20, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

25%

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

85%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2049

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 20, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

25%

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

85%