8
101 forecasters

Will China reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030?

74%chance
Top Key Factors
SIPRI estimates China's arsenal grows by 100 warheads/year
Increases Likelihood
600 warheads estimated by SIPRI and US DoD
Increases Likelihood
1000 warheads expected by 2029
Increases Likelihood
Factors that increase the probability
Increases Likelihood