China will host the 2022 Winter Olympic Games. Significant political tensions between China and the Western powers, especially the USA, as well as human rights activists' dissatisfaction with China's recent behavior - particularly over the 2019 Hong Kong Protests and the Xinjiang re-education camps - have led to calls for a relocation or boycott of the event.
There's a current Metaculus question asking whether a majority of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (US, Australia, India, Japan) and the Five Eyes (US, UK, Australia, New Zealand, Canada) will absolutely boycott the 2022 Olympics in Beijing, China.
On November 16, 2021, Josh Rogin at the Washington Post wrote that the United States was planning to diplomatically boycott the Olympics instead of having a complete one. On November 18, 2021, President Biden has said the US is considering such a boycott. This is where this question comes in.
A diplomatic boycott is when a country sends no heads of state or government officials / dignitaries to the Olympic games, but still sends their athletes to compete under the banner of the country.
Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries diplomatically boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?
The question will be resolved on the first day of the Winter 2022 Olympic Games (currently scheduled for 2022-02-04), and will resolve later if the 2022 Olympic Games are postponed.
The question will resolve positively if at least four of following nations participate in a diplomatic boycott (or absolute boycott) of the games, and negatively if three or fewer boycott:
- New Zealand
- United Kingdom
- United States
The question will resolve ambiguously if the 2022 Winter Olympics is cancelled or relocated to another country for whatever reasons (including due to Covid-19 pandemic). If the 2022 Winter Olympics in China are not held before the next Winter Olympics (such as the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan), the question will resolve ambiguously.
For this question, a diplomatic boycott shall be defined as a nation's athletes competing as officially representing their country, but WITHOUT sending any government officials to attend.