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3
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47
forecasters
Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?
7%
chance
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Predict
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Timeline
In the News
Key Factors
Question Info
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1d
1w
2m
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Authors:
Kostas
Opened:
Dec 23, 2021
Closes:
Dec 31, 2034
Scheduled resolution:
Jan 31, 2035
Spot Scoring Time:
Dec 25, 2021
Economy & Business
Technology
Space
News Match
China's Shenzhou-20 return mission delayed due to space debris impact
NBC
•
Nov 5, 2025
Point Nemo and the Final Journey of the ISS
PJ Media
•
Nov 3, 2025
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
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