Question

Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters47

Community Prediction

(4.4% - 13%)

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50%

community: 7%

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Authors:

Kostas

Opened:

Dec 23, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 31, 2035

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 25, 2021

Environmental science

International Space Station

Russia

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What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

1060

Will Kessler syndrome occur before 2050?

12%

If Kessler syndrome is not triggered, when will peak space debris be reached?

Aug 2040

Authors:

Kostas

Opened:

Dec 23, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 31, 2035

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 25, 2021

Environmental science

International Space Station

Russia

Asteroid May Hit Satellites And Cause Spectacular Shooting Stars — What To Know

Forbes•Jun 24, 2025

Earth's satellites at risk if asteroid smashes into Moon: study

•Jun 24, 2025

Earth's satellites at risk if asteroid smashes into Moon: study

•Jun 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

1060

Will Kessler syndrome occur before 2050?

12%

If Kessler syndrome is not triggered, when will peak space debris be reached?

Aug 2040