Question

How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 14 January 2022?

Resolved:35

25 comments25

Total Forecasters30

Community Prediction

30.8

(26 - 33.7)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	25.96	30.83	33.69
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	25.96	—
median	30.83	—
upper 75%	33.69	—

What was the final result?35

Community Baseline Score

100.4

Community Peer Score

96.1

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Nov 24, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2021

Resolves:

Feb 4, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 2, 2021

Keep Virginia Safe Tournament

Keep Virginia Safe: Round 3

Health & Pandemics

2021 Leaderboard

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

43%

Will any flu season before 2032 exceed 14% ED and UC visits being for ILI?

35.4%

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

0.1%