35 comments
127 forecasters
Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?
90%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 90% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Dec 8, 2021
Closes:Oct 31, 2022
Resolved:Dec 13, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 10, 2021
Will there be a breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031?
99% chance
296
Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?
1% chance
405
When will Google first report that an AI system reached or surpassed CBRN uplift level 1?
>Jun 2036
(>Jun 2036 - >Jun 2036)
>Jun 2036
(>Jun 2036 - >Jun 2036)
1 forecaster