Question

Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?

Resolved:No

10 comments10

Total Forecasters103

Community Prediction

(1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

95.6

Community Peer Score

7.2

Authors:

crule

Opened:

Dec 2, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 3, 2021

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Technology

Space

2021-2025 Leaderboard

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Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

1060

What percent of spacecraft will satisfy post mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029?

59.3

Authors:

crule

Opened:

Dec 2, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 3, 2021

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Technology

Space

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Asteroid May Hit Satellites And Cause Spectacular Shooting Stars — What To Know

Forbes•Jun 24, 2025

Earth's satellites at risk if asteroid smashes into Moon: study

•Jun 24, 2025

Earth's satellites at risk if asteroid smashes into Moon: study

•Jun 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

1060

What percent of spacecraft will satisfy post mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029?

59.3