Question

Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?

Resolved:No

10 comments10

Total Forecasters103

Community Prediction

(1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

7.2

Community Baseline Score

95.6

Authors:

crule

Opened:

Dec 2, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 3, 2021

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Technology

Space

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Will a Lunar Impact in 2032 Cause a Meteor Storm?

Scientific American•Aug 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

1050

What percent of spacecraft will satisfy post mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029?

60.1