Question
Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?
Resolved:NoTotal Forecasters103
Community Prediction
1%
(1% - 1%)
Make a Prediction
Did this actually happen?No
Community Baseline Score
95.6
Community Peer Score
7.2
Authors:
Opened:Dec 2, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2024
Resolves:Jan 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 3, 2021
Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?
7%
What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?
1060
What percent of spacecraft will satisfy post mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029?
59.3
Authors:
Opened:Dec 2, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2024
Resolves:Jan 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 3, 2021
Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?
7%
What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?
1060
What percent of spacecraft will satisfy post mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029?
59.3