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Global Excess Deaths Due to COVID-19 by 2023

Question

The Economist provides a daily estimate of the number of global excess deaths due to COVID-19. Excess deaths are the number of deaths above the number predicted by trends in mortality rates. COVID-19 would be expected to create excess deaths by killing people, by consuming health resources, and by disrupting economic systems while potentially partly offsetting this by reducing flu transmission, traffic deaths, and air pollution. As of 28 November 2021, The Economist estimates 17.4 million excess deaths since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a 95% confidence interval of 10.9 million to 20.3 million. Their estimate is more than triple the official global COVID-19 death toll of 5.2 million.

What will be The Economist's estimated global excess deaths due to COVID-19 on January 1, 2023?

This question resolves to the estimate listed on The Economist's "daily estimate of excess deaths around the world" when it has been updated on January 1, 2023.

If The Economist no longer publishes this estimate directly, the question resolves to the sum of its "Tracking COVID-19 excess deaths across countries". If it no longer publishes this either, the question resolves to the average of the two other most credible estimates of global excess deaths identified by a Metaculus moderator.

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