Question

What share of all payments (in percent) in the United States will be transacted and settled in real-time in 2028?

20 comments20

Total Forecasters8

Community Prediction

4.83%

(1.25% - 15.8%)

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CDF

	<0.3%	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>33.3%
community	17.0%	1.254%	4.825%	15.8%	10.2%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<0.3%	17.0%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	1.254%	—
median	4.825%	—
upper 75%	15.8%	—
Upper bound
>33.3%	10.2%	—

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Authors:

VivaLaPanda

Opened:

Jan 10, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 12, 2023

Economy & Business

Technology

Financial Institutions Can Align With Businesses On Faster Payments

Forbes•Jun 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a retail CBDC (central bank digital currency) go live in the USA and become available for public use before 2031?

27.5%

Will cryptocurrencies account for at least 1% of U.S. retail payments before January 1, 2035?

91%

What will real GDP growth be in the United States in the following years?

1.75

Authors:

VivaLaPanda

Opened:

Jan 10, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 12, 2023

Economy & Business

Technology

Financial Institutions Can Align With Businesses On Faster Payments

Forbes•Jun 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a retail CBDC (central bank digital currency) go live in the USA and become available for public use before 2031?

27.5%

Will cryptocurrencies account for at least 1% of U.S. retail payments before January 1, 2035?

91%

What will real GDP growth be in the United States in the following years?

1.75