14 comments
107 forecasters
Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?
0.2%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 0% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Aug 7, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolved:Jan 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 8, 2022
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?
7% chance
48
When will the first space mission remove more than one piece of space debris from orbit?
14 Dec 2028
(18 Oct 2026 - May 2032)
14 Dec 2028
(18 Oct 2026 - May 2032)
17 forecasters
Will Kessler syndrome occur before 2050?
14% chance
449