Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

"Moon Cube" shown non-natural before 2023?


In December 2021, it was reported that China’s Yutu 2 rover has imaged a "mystery object" on the horizon in Von Kármán crater on the far side of the moon.

The object is described as 'cube-shaped,' and was imaged at a distance of around 80 metres (260 ft). reports that "Team scientists have expressed a strong interest in the object and Yutu 2 is now expected to spend the next 2-3 lunar days (2-3 Earth months) traversing lunar regolith and avoiding craters to get a closer look, so updates can be expected."

Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?

This question resolves positively if before 1 January 2023, the "Moon Cube" is generally considered, in the judgment of Metaculus moderators, to be a non-natural object (i.e. a human-made object, or an object appearing to have been created or shaped by intelligent means). If the object is generally considered to be a natural object, such as a rock formation, this question resolves negatively. If there is no general consensus, the question resolves ambiguously.

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.