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Cultivated meat profitable by April 2023

Feeding Humanity Alt-Protein Tournament

Question

Cultivated meat is fast approaching the point of scalability. No longer as cost-prohibitive as before, companies like Eat Just can now sell their cultivated meat chicken nuggets in Singapore for $23.

And it's not just Eat Just in the cultivated meat marketplace. 

"There are now more than 70 cellular meat companies globally cultivating meats ranging from chicken to foie gras to kangaroo. Cultured meat could make up as much as 35% of the $1.8 trillion global meat market by 2040, according to an estimate from Kearney."

Large, and growing, investments into these startup companies help spur the possibility of industrial and large-scale production, a step that would dramatically reduce the cost of production, and ultimately the price, for cultivated meat products. The current presence of investors in these companies, and in the industry as a whole, indicates a belief that these companies will be able to operate for a profit at scale in the future. In between 2019 and 2020, total investments in the industry grew 6x!

Although no company has secured a commercial-scale facility or supply chain in place, several startup companies in the industry are making headway on achieving such a goal within the next five years. As countries push to follow Singapore's lead in legalizing the commercial sale of cultivated meat products, the possibility of a profitable cultivated meat company becomes increasingly likely. Therefore it would be interesting to forecast the future commercial development.

Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?

This question will resolve positively if a company that focuses primarily on the production and sale of cultivated meat products becomes profitable by generating an overall profit or financial gain within a 365 day period.

We define "focuses primarily" to mean a company must generate at least 80% of its revenue from the sale of cultivated meat-related products, or cultivated meat-related intellectual property. All products produced by the company must include at least 20% cultivated meat grown from animal cells that do not require the slaughter of the animal. Cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in a cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.

The profit announcement must be reported through at least three reputable news sources, or through media releases by the company. The company does not need to publish balance sheets if it is private, although in the case the company becomes public before, or during the year it becomes profitable, balance sheets can provide resolution. It is also sufficient if a profit claim is made by a market report or analysis by an organization such as The Good Food Institute.

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