Related Question on Metaculus:
In early December 2021, Russia has significantly increased the number of troops stationed on its border with Ukraine to nearly 100,000, according to the New York Times. In 2014 Russia invaded and annexed the Ukrainian-held Crimean peninsula, and skirmishes between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists have continued in the Donbas region of Ukraine ever since, for which Russia has denied involvement. In December 2021 US President Joe Biden warned Russian President Vladmir Putin that If Ukraine were invaded, the US would respond with economic sanctions.
Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?
This question resolves positively if, between December 11, 2021 and January 1, 2023, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Ukraine, or if any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded Ukraine. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from December 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023. Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution.