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Question

Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?

Resolved:Yes
237
1861 comments1861
Total Forecasters1151
Community Prediction
99%
(99% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score
7.6
Authors:
casens
Opened:Dec 11, 2021
Closes:Jul 29, 2022
Resolves:Jul 29, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 11, 2021
Global Trends 2022
2022 Scott Alexander predictions
Geopolitics
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Independent logo
Russia ramps up offensives on two fronts in Ukraine as both sides seek an advantage before fall
Independent•Jul 4, 2025
PBS NewsHour logo
Emboldened Russia ramps up offensives on 2 fronts in Ukraine
PBS NewsHour•Jul 3, 2025
New York Post logo
Russia ramps up offensives on 2 fronts in Ukraine as both sides seek advantage before fall
New York Post•Jul 2, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

11%

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

1%

Will Russia invade another European country before the following years?

Authors:
casens
Opened:Dec 11, 2021
Closes:Jul 29, 2022
Resolves:Jul 29, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 11, 2021
Global Trends 2022
2022 Scott Alexander predictions
Geopolitics
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Independent logo
Russia ramps up offensives on two fronts in Ukraine as both sides seek an advantage before fall
Independent•Jul 4, 2025
PBS NewsHour logo
Emboldened Russia ramps up offensives on 2 fronts in Ukraine
PBS NewsHour•Jul 3, 2025
New York Post logo
Russia ramps up offensives on 2 fronts in Ukraine as both sides seek advantage before fall
New York Post•Jul 2, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

11%

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

1%

Will Russia invade another European country before the following years?

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