94 comments
369 forecasters
Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?
96%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 96% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Dec 20, 2021
Closes:Mar 31, 2022
Resolved:Jun 1, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 21, 2021
Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?
0.1% chance
130
Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?
20% chance
92
When will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister?
11 Mar 2029
(05 Jul 2027 - Mar 2031)
11 Mar 2029
(05 Jul 2027 - Mar 2031)
18 forecasters