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9
25
forecasters
4
9 comments
25 forecasters
Computing and Math
1 more...
Will Google implement a feature to explain targeted Google Ads before 2026?
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0 comments
12 forecasters
Date EU Enforces Right To Explanation
Current estimate
23 Mar 2029
18 comments
27 forecasters
Ads on ChatGPT?
2026
99.9%
2027
99.9%
2028
99.9%
26 comments
1.5k forecasters
AI given rights in US before 2035
10%
chance
6 comments
97 forecasters
Will OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet CEO pledge AI autonomy limits before 2027?
10%
chance
3 comments
18 forecasters
AI-written article in the New York Times
In 2024
0.1%
In 2025
0.1%
In 2026-2027
61.7%
In 2028-2029
28%
2030 or later
10.2%
0 comments
9 forecasters
Date that Google reports an AI reached CBRN uplift level 1?
Current estimate
05 Oct 2030
1 comment
167 forecasters
AI safety checks mandated before Jan 20, 2029?
35%
chance
3 comments
34 forecasters
Mandatory GCR-Focused Evals for AI Systems
45%
chance