Related Question on Metaculus:
Abortion is a famously controversial subject in the US, with adamant proponents for both sides arguing for abortion to be legal or illegal in all or nearly all circumstances. FiveThirtyEight journalist Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux estimated in December 2021 that 55-65% of Americans fall in the middle, favoring various degrees of access to abortion with restrictions. Gallup has found in polling consistently since 1989 more Americans support Roe v Wade than wish to overturn it.
In October 2021, Amy Coney Barrett was appointed to the US Supreme Court, making 6 of the 9 sitting justices appointed by a Republican president. Many political pundits anticipated that this majority would result in overturning or altering Roe v. Wade. In Texas, a law effectively banning abortions occurring after the 6th week of pregnancy was brought before the court, but the case was dismissed on procedural grounds. The court also heard arguments in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, pertaining to a ban in Mississippi on abortions occurring after 15 weeks of pregnancy (fetal viability, the previous standard under Casey, is approximately 24 weeks of pregnancy). Dobbs is anticipated to be decided by June of 2022.
Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?
This question will resolve positively if, anytime between December 1, 2021 to January 1, 2023, the Supreme Court of the United States overturns a previous ruling or upholds a state or federal law which bans elective abortions at some point before the date of fetal viability. This decision may be rendered in Dobbs, a case concerning the Texas Heartbeat Act, or in another case.
By "banning elective abortions", we mean for the purpose of this question any kind of criminal punishment, such as a felony, misdemeanor, infraction, or fine, as well as civil punishments such as revocation of medical or professional licenses, or eg. allowing private parties to sue abortion practitioners or patients. These punishments may be directed at individuals recieving abortions, individual doctors or medical professionals, or clinics and organizations who provide abortions, either punishing them for abortions performed or recieved, or making them effectively unable to perform/recieve an abortion.