Question

Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?

Resolved:Yes

43 comments43

Total Forecasters263

Community Prediction

97%

(90% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 97%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

5.8

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Dec 26, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2022

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 28, 2021

Future Perfect 2022 Series

Law

Politics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Wisconsin’s 176-year-old abortion ban struck down by state Supreme Court

PBS NewsHour•Jul 2, 2025

Wisconsin Supreme Court strikes down state's 1849 near-total abortion ban

NBC•Jul 2, 2025

Wisconsin Supreme Court Issues Landmark Abortion Ruling

Newsweek•Jul 2, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

In what percent of US States will Casey-era abortion rights be granted on May 1, 2026?

54.5

Will elective abortion be banned nationally in the United States before 2030?

15%

Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?

13%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Dec 26, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2022

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 28, 2021

Future Perfect 2022 Series

Law

Politics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Wisconsin’s 176-year-old abortion ban struck down by state Supreme Court

PBS NewsHour•Jul 2, 2025

Wisconsin Supreme Court strikes down state's 1849 near-total abortion ban

NBC•Jul 2, 2025

Wisconsin Supreme Court Issues Landmark Abortion Ruling

Newsweek•Jul 2, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

In what percent of US States will Casey-era abortion rights be granted on May 1, 2026?

54.5

Will elective abortion be banned nationally in the United States before 2030?

15%

Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?

13%