36 comments
232 forecasters
Will the richest person in the world in 2033 have a net worth equivalent to or greater than 2% of the United States' GDP at the time?
53%chance
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Authors:
Opened:May 15, 2018
Closes:Jan 1, 2033
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2033
Spot Scoring Time:May 15, 2018
Five years after AGI, how rich will the richest person in the world be?
>1.5T $
(1.05T - >1.5T)
>1.5T $
(1.05T - >1.5T)
32 forecasters
Will Elon Musk have quadruple the wealth of the second richest person on any day before 2030?
4.4% chance
26
Will Elon Musk have triple the wealth of the second richest person on any day before 2028?
2% chance
25