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    2022 Warmer Than 2021

    Created by casens on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}.
    Community prediction hidden until {{qctrl.question.cp_hidden_period_ends_time | dateStr}}
    Published by casens on {{qctrl.question.publish_time | dateStr}}.

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    Related Questions on Metaculus:

    8 years between 2010 to 2019 have been in the top 10 warmest years on record according to NOAA's 2020 report. The remaining 2 years in the top 10 were 2020 and 2005. This is one indicator of global climate change caused by humans.

    NASA's GISTEMP analysis of global surface temperatures show an average increase of 0.032C per year from 2001 - 2020, and an avarage increase of 0.02C from 1971 - 2020. 13 out of 20 years between 2001 - 2020 were warmer than their preceeding year.

    Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?

    This question will resolve positively if global surface temperatures in 2022 are warmer than in 2021, according to NASA's GISTEMP. In the event of a statistical tie, another credible source such as NOAA may be used.

    Categories:
    Environment – Climate
    Series – Future Perfect – 2022
    Scott Alexander 2022
    Effective Altruism

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