6 comments
103 forecasters
Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?
1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Dec 27, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2022
Resolved:Jan 1, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 29, 2021
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?
3% chance
54
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?
23% chance
225
Before 2035, will the major science funding agencies NIH and NSF require formal reporting of AI involvement in research outputs as a condition of funding?
62% chance
24