36 comments
159 forecasters
Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?
90%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 90% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Dec 24, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2022
Resolved:Dec 27, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 26, 2021
How many US states will decriminalize psilocybin on January 1, 2027?
5.53 states
(3.2 - 9.62)
5.53 states
(3.2 - 9.62)
44 forecasters
In how many of the 50 US states will it be legal to use psilocybin for therapy on December 31, 2025?
3.75 states
(2.46 - 7.19)
3.75 states
(2.46 - 7.19)
35 forecasters
Will the next step for the medical approval of psychedelics for mental health be taken in the US in 2025?
5% chance
204