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36 comments
159 forecasters

Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?

90%chance
90%chance
ResolvedYes
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 90% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
casens
Opened:Dec 24, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2022
Resolved:Dec 27, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 26, 2021
2022 Scott Alexander predictions
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Magic Mushroom Edibles Found to Contain No Psilocybin
Scientific American•Sep 11, 2025
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Psychedelic drug popular in 1960s could ease anxiety as doctors share warnings
FOX News•Sep 8, 2025
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How many US states will decriminalize psilocybin on January 1, 2027?

5.53 states
(3.2 - 9.62)
5.53 states
(3.2 - 9.62)
44 forecasters

In how many of the 50 US states will it be legal to use psilocybin for therapy on December 31, 2025?

3.75 states
(2.46 - 7.19)
3.75 states
(2.46 - 7.19)
35 forecasters

Will the next step for the medical approval of psychedelics for mental health be taken in the US in 2025?

5% chance
204
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