Question

What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?

Resolved:928

9 comments9

Total Forecasters25

Community Prediction

2379

(1559 - 3430)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	1559	2379	3430
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	1559	—
median	2379	—
upper 75%	3430	—

What was the final result?928

Community Baseline Score

7.6

Community Peer Score

31.7

Authors:

srinivv

Opened:

Dec 24, 2021

Closes:

Jan 14, 2022

Resolves:

Mar 24, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 2, 2022

Real-Time Pandemic Decision Making

Real-time Pandemic Decision Making: Round 3

Health & Pandemics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

43%

Will any flu season before 2032 exceed 14% ED and UC visits being for ILI?

35.4%

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

0.1%